2018 midterm election predictions

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sanfordandson
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by sanfordandson » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:16 pm

gmrocket wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:19 am
mk e wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:28 am
gmrocket wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:47 am

538 said the seat gain would be 39

Was it actually 26?

Pretty slim when it was 23 required....and many races were super close, like 1%

Sure wasn't no blue wave....didn't the masiah lose something like 60?

How far off was 538's MoE?
They did not say it would be 39, they said the nominal would be 39 but the 80% probablility range was Dems +21 to +59. That's important becasue polls are statistical samples not actual results and anytime you talk about statistic you are talking about probably range. They were VERY clear to say over and over that the Dems were likely to take the house but it was far from certain. They said the same of the Rebups and the senate....probably hold and probably gain seats but its not certain becasue its just statistics.

In the final call they said the dems are favrored in the house IF they win the popular vote by at least 5.6%. MoE on most poll is is about 3% unless sample sizes are huge. There's a difference of opinion on whether combining samples lowers MoE....in theory it should becasaue you have a bigger sample but if the methodology, questions, timing don't match exactly then there is aserious question about whether the MoE is reduced or you just move toward less noise (averaging always reduced data noice). MoE remains 3% after averaging IMPO.

As for blue wave....in 2016 the final popular voting was Repubs +1. The final polling had it at Dems by 0.6... well within MoE no matter how you calculate it. This year the totals are not yet in but its looking like Dems +3 to +7...that is a big swing, final polling said Dems 7.3 +/-3%. A number like that would be a RED tsunami, but becasue of the way the country is setup it is only a blue ripple. Something like 50% of the US population is represented by 20 senated seats...the coasts where more people live are blue, but most states aren't on the coast and are red, which means a blue wave needs to be maybe Dems +10-12 and a Blue tsunami id Dems +15-20. This was a large swing toward the Dems but not a wave.
say it however you want..i posted here at 12 midnight on monday 538 said a 39 gain with an 88.5% chance of that happening

the low was 21 gain and the high something like 59

it was really much closer to the low gain estimate,,not even close to the 39

538 fail....over the last few months it was like watching the over confident sports team talking about how they were gonna smash the underdog into oblivion, then during the game it goes into triple overtime, then the underdog ends up putting the puck into their own net to give the win to the favored team...

so in a funny way...rasmmussen was more correct as they were closer to the real gain as they predicted it as an even house split with the MoE
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mk e » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:53 am

gmrocket wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:19 am


say it however you want..i posted here at 12 midnight on monday 538 said a 39 gain with an 88.5% chance of that happening

the low was 21 gain and the high something like 59

it was really much closer to the low gain estimate,,not even close to the 39

538 fail....
Hmmmm...today the count stands at 38 seats for the dems with 39 still possible. So 538s 50/50 number of 39 was basically spot on.

Stupid statistics.
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by gmrocket » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:42 am

Get back to me when the impeachment stuff starts ok...

Veto.. executive order...

Trumps gonna need some new pens... some for signing the above, and some for poking the outrage machine in the eye

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mk e » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:56 am

gmrocket wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:42 am
Get back to me when the impeachment stuff starts ok...
No, let's stay on topic.

538 said the over/under was 39 seats....right now 38 have changed hands and it's still possible the number could reach 40.

I'd say that's pretty close wouldn't you?

How'd Rasmussen do? Hmmm...there final poll has the generic ballot at 46R, 45D so R by 1 with a 2% MoE. The actual voting is currently at D by 7.3...so Rasmussen missed by 8.2 or 4 times their reported MoE. Hard to be much more WRONG than that.

Just to make sure we're comparing apples to apples the final 538 generic ballot was D by... 7.3. The totals may still shift a little so they might not end up calling it EXACTLY right, but they were pretty frickin close.

Stupid math...
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by sanfordandson » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:08 am

mk e wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:56 am
gmrocket wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:42 am
Get back to me when the impeachment stuff starts ok...
No, let's stay on topic.
What you dont want to talk about space lasers causing wildfires, Russia, Clintons, Obamas birth certificate or Mueller grabbing pussy? :lol:

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mk e » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:12 am

sanfordandson wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:08 am
mk e wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:56 am
gmrocket wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:42 am
Get back to me when the impeachment stuff starts ok...
No, let's stay on topic.
What you dont want to talk about space lasers causing wildfires, Russia, Clintons, Obamas birth certificate or Mueller grabbing pussy? :lol:
No...nor a magical risk free way to gamble, I mean invest, borrowed money into epic wealth.
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by gmrocket » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:02 am

mk e wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:12 am
sanfordandson wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:08 am
mk e wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:56 am


No, let's stay on topic.
What you dont want to talk about space lasers causing wildfires, Russia, Clintons, Obamas birth certificate or Mueller grabbing pussy? :lol:
No...nor a magical risk free way to gamble, I mean invest, borrowed money into epic wealth.
I get it..jeeesh. You lefties have a hate on for anyone who is successful and is quite fine with the system and how it works.. I invested wisely and was able to retire early... isn't that the shyts huh? Your really quiet about your retirement plan.. do you plan on working forever because "you love it"? That's the answer from people who realize they are fvcked and have no plan

During the 08/09 meltdown I went in looking for bargains... the whole market was on sale! Damm, my broker even made me sign a waver that it was my choice alone to do what I was doing,,,, damm! Ten years later he still talks about what I did&laughs..

Hope you have a work pension.. because your attitude will make you broke in old age

It's not magic.. it's a hard work ethic and positive attitude, one in which I don't think the sky is falling and the whole world is out to get me.
Last edited by gmrocket on Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by gmrocket » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:04 am

sanfordandson wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:08 am
mk e wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:56 am
gmrocket wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:42 am
Get back to me when the impeachment stuff starts ok...
No, let's stay on topic.
What you dont want to talk about space lasers causing wildfires, Russia, Clintons, Obamas birth certificate or Mueller grabbing pussy? :lol:
6 more years of Trumps tariffs for you!! Hahaha

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mk e » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:10 am

gmrocket wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:02 am

It's not magic.. it's a hard work ethic and positive attitude, one in which I don't think the sky is falling and the whole world is out to get me.
Exactly so.....you're talking about how a place like 538 hits reelection results so close compared to a group like Rasmussen who simply tells people what they want to hear right?
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by gmrocket » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:35 am

mk e wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:10 am
gmrocket wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:02 am

It's not magic.. it's a hard work ethic and positive attitude, one in which I don't think the sky is falling and the whole world is out to get me.
Exactly so.....you're talking about how a place like 538 hits reelection results so close compared to a group like Rasmussen who simply tells people what they want to hear right?
Ya, I wanted to hear trump would win, they said he would..and he did.

Did I hear it right? He is the potus

I also heard up until election night hillary was like 90%+

Stupid facts

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mk e » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:26 pm

Rasmussen missed by 4 points 2x their MoE one of the worst performances by a major polling organization

538 missed by almost exactly their MoE.. one of the best performances. They also went to great pains to explain what the numbers mean and why Rumo winning g was a very real possibility....a little trip down memory lane.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirty ... inton/amp/
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by j-c-c » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:54 pm

gmrocket wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:02 am
mk e wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:12 am
sanfordandson wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:08 am


What you dont want to talk about space lasers causing wildfires, Russia, Clintons, Obamas birth certificate or Mueller grabbing pussy? :lol:
No...nor a magical risk free way to gamble, I mean invest, borrowed money into epic wealth.
I get it..jeeesh. You lefties have a hate on for anyone who is successful and is quite fine with the system and how it works.. I invested wisely and was able to retire early... isn't that the shyts huh? Your really quiet about your retirement plan.. do you plan on working forever because "you love it"? That's the answer from people who realize they are fvcked and have no plan

During the 08/09 meltdown I went in looking for bargains... the whole market was on sale! Damm, my broker even made me sign a waver that it was my choice alone to do what I was doing,,,, damm! Ten years later he still talks about what I did&laughs..

Hope you have a work pension.. because your attitude will make you broke in old age

It's not magic.. it's a hard work ethic and positive attitude, one in which I don't think the sky is falling and the whole world is out to get me.
You should be selling then, there is a "blue Light" special coming around the corner, plenty of misery coming for you to feed off of, sorry, "Invest in wisely".

"it's a hard work ethic and positive attitude", thought that is what the DT crowd was tired of swallowing?

Gloat in your success.

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by gmrocket » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:59 pm

mk e wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:26 pm
Rasmussen missed by 4 points 2x their MoE one of the worst performances by a major polling organization

538 missed by almost exactly their MoE.. one of the best performances. They also went to great pains to explain what the numbers mean and why Rumo winning g was a very real possibility....a little trip down memory lane.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirty ... inton/amp/
Hmm, maybe your right?

The dems should get Florida woman in there to do a recount of the ballots? seems logical since the polls said trump had less than 10% chance of winning..something smells fishy

I wouldn't want trump to be there for EIGHT years illegally.

Stupid really

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mk e » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:14 pm

gmrocket wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:59 pm
Hmm, maybe your right?
No maybe about it......
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by gmrocket » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:34 pm

mk e wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:14 pm
gmrocket wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:59 pm
Hmm, maybe your right?
No maybe about it......
Ya, your average is outstanding!

no doubt about it, there will be recession in the future, at some point, down the road, possibly sooner than later?

Can you give us a more specific time frame?

I've been buckled up now for far too long....

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