2018 midterm election predictions

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RevTheory
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by RevTheory » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:57 am

Harry said it best above. I couldn't agree more.

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by sanfordandson » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:19 am

Interesting 2018 midterm firsts so far

Here are some interesting firsts in the 2018 midterm elections, so far:

Women candidates:

Most of the early Republican-to-Democratic House flips of the evening were by Democratic women.

Jennifer Wexton defeated Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock in Virginia's 10th District.
Donna Shalala won an open seat to replace Republican Rep. Ileana Ross-Lehtinen in Florida's 2th District.
Mary Gay Scanlon was elected to the House from Pennsylvania, winning in a redrawn 5th District, Chrissy Houlahan won in the state's newly constituted 6th District, Susan Wild won in the new 7th District. They are the first women to be elected from Pennsylvania to the House since 2014.
Sharice Davids defeated Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder in Kansas' 3rd District. Davids is Native American, gay and an MMA fighter.
Mikie Sherrill won in New Jersey's 11th District, picking up the seat held by outgoing Republican Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen.
Elaine Luria defeated Republican Rep. Scott Taylor in Virginia's 2nd District.

They will join women who didn’t flip districts but whose primary wins are sending them to the House:

Ayanna Pressley in Massachusetts' 7th District became the first black woman elected to the House from the state.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York's 14th District became the youngest woman elected to Congress.
Veronica Escobar (16th District) and Sylvia Garcia (29th District) became the first Latinas elected to Congress from Texas.

Vice president’s brother: For the first time a vice president’s brother was elected to the House. Mike Pence’s brother, Greg Pence, was elected to Congress in Indiana's 6th District.

First gay man elected governor: Democrat Jared Polis defeated Republican Walker Stapleton to win the Colorado governor’s race and become the first openly gay man to be elected governor.

Voting rights: Florida passed Amendment 4, restoring voting rights to felons. The amendment will restore voting rights to 1.4 million Floridians, the majority black or Latino men. Florida was one of only three states — and by far the biggest — to bar people from voting even after completing their sentences.

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mk e » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:28 am

gmrocket wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:47 am

538 said the seat gain would be 39

Was it actually 26?

Pretty slim when it was 23 required....and many races were super close, like 1%

Sure wasn't no blue wave....didn't the masiah lose something like 60?

How far off was 538's MoE?
They did not say it would be 39, they said the nominal would be 39 but the 80% probablility range was Dems +21 to +59. That's important becasue polls are statistical samples not actual results and anytime you talk about statistic you are talking about probably range. They were VERY clear to say over and over that the Dems were likely to take the house but it was far from certain. They said the same of the Rebups and the senate....probably hold and probably gain seats but its not certain becasue its just statistics.

In the final call they said the dems are favrored in the house IF they win the popular vote by at least 5.6%. MoE on most poll is is about 3% unless sample sizes are huge. There's a difference of opinion on whether combining samples lowers MoE....in theory it should becasaue you have a bigger sample but if the methodology, questions, timing don't match exactly then there is aserious question about whether the MoE is reduced or you just move toward less noise (averaging always reduced data noice). MoE remains 3% after averaging IMPO.

As for blue wave....in 2016 the final popular voting was Repubs +1. The final polling had it at Dems by 0.6... well within MoE no matter how you calculate it. This year the totals are not yet in but its looking like Dems +3 to +7...that is a big swing, final polling said Dems 7.3 +/-3%. A number like that would be a RED tsunami, but becasue of the way the country is setup it is only a blue ripple. Something like 50% of the US population is represented by 20 senated seats...the coasts where more people live are blue, but most states aren't on the coast and are red, which means a blue wave needs to be maybe Dems +10-12 and a Blue tsunami id Dems +15-20. This was a large swing toward the Dems but not a wave.
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by RevTheory » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:52 am

I don't know, nor care, what Mystic Mark is saying although I'm sure it's a much-needed "victory" lap. But hey, if you keep calling heads, the coin is bound to land on heads at some point.

Mark's win/loss record: 1/1,024

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mk e » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:57 am

RevTheory wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:52 am
I don't know, nor care, what Mystic Mark is saying although I'm sure it's a much-needed "victory" lap. But hey, if you keep calling heads, the coin is bound to land on heads at some point.

Mark's win/loss record: 1/1,024
You can only cheat the odds just so many time before you're bitten by them. Rump and his agenda are not popular.....
Mark
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mitch » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:02 am

mk e wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:57 am
RevTheory wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:52 am
I don't know, nor care, what Mystic Mark is saying although I'm sure it's a much-needed "victory" lap. But hey, if you keep calling heads, the coin is bound to land on heads at some point.

Mark's win/loss record: 1/1,024
You can only cheat the odds just so many time before you're bitten by them. Rump and his agenda are not popular.....
Marks agenda isn't either

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by gmrocket » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:19 am

mk e wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:28 am
gmrocket wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:47 am

538 said the seat gain would be 39

Was it actually 26?

Pretty slim when it was 23 required....and many races were super close, like 1%

Sure wasn't no blue wave....didn't the masiah lose something like 60?

How far off was 538's MoE?
They did not say it would be 39, they said the nominal would be 39 but the 80% probablility range was Dems +21 to +59. That's important becasue polls are statistical samples not actual results and anytime you talk about statistic you are talking about probably range. They were VERY clear to say over and over that the Dems were likely to take the house but it was far from certain. They said the same of the Rebups and the senate....probably hold and probably gain seats but its not certain becasue its just statistics.

In the final call they said the dems are favrored in the house IF they win the popular vote by at least 5.6%. MoE on most poll is is about 3% unless sample sizes are huge. There's a difference of opinion on whether combining samples lowers MoE....in theory it should becasaue you have a bigger sample but if the methodology, questions, timing don't match exactly then there is aserious question about whether the MoE is reduced or you just move toward less noise (averaging always reduced data noice). MoE remains 3% after averaging IMPO.

As for blue wave....in 2016 the final popular voting was Repubs +1. The final polling had it at Dems by 0.6... well within MoE no matter how you calculate it. This year the totals are not yet in but its looking like Dems +3 to +7...that is a big swing, final polling said Dems 7.3 +/-3%. A number like that would be a RED tsunami, but becasue of the way the country is setup it is only a blue ripple. Something like 50% of the US population is represented by 20 senated seats...the coasts where more people live are blue, but most states aren't on the coast and are red, which means a blue wave needs to be maybe Dems +10-12 and a Blue tsunami id Dems +15-20. This was a large swing toward the Dems but not a wave.
say it however you want..i posted here at 12 midnight on monday 538 said a 39 gain with an 88.5% chance of that happening

the low was 21 gain and the high something like 59

it was really much closer to the low gain estimate,,not even close to the 39

538 fail....over the last few months it was like watching the over confident sports team talking about how they were gonna smash the underdog into oblivion, then during the game it goes into triple overtime, then the underdog ends up putting the puck into their own net to give the win to the favored team...

so in a funny way...rasmmussen was more correct as they were closer to the real gain as they predicted it as an even house split with the MoE
Last edited by gmrocket on Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by j-c-c » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:21 am

mitch wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:02 am
mk e wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:57 am
RevTheory wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:52 am
I don't know, nor care, what Mystic Mark is saying although I'm sure it's a much-needed "victory" lap. But hey, if you keep calling heads, the coin is bound to land on heads at some point.

Mark's win/loss record: 1/1,024
You can only cheat the odds just so many time before you're bitten by them. Rump and his agenda are not popular.....
Marks agenda isn't either
Mark is not on the ballot, last time I checked.

mitch
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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mitch » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:30 am

j-c-c wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:21 am
mitch wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:02 am
mk e wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:57 am


You can only cheat the odds just so many time before you're bitten by them. Rump and his agenda are not popular.....
Marks agenda isn't either
Mark is not on the ballot, last time I checked.
Oh Thanks Mark

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mitch » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:31 am

j-c-c wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:21 am
mitch wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:02 am
mk e wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:57 am


You can only cheat the odds just so many time before you're bitten by them. Rump and his agenda are not popular.....
Marks agenda isn't either
Mark is not on the ballot, last time I checked.
I did not see Trump on it either

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by j-c-c » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:38 am

mitch wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:31 am
j-c-c wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:21 am
mitch wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:02 am


Marks agenda isn't either
Mark is not on the ballot, last time I checked.
I did not see Trump on it either
Nobody told DT apparently.

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by sanfordandson » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:48 am

Looks like the Scott Walked and Sam Brownback experiments are finally over.

Remeber how proud trans am was of Brownback and his failed polices in Kansas? =D> #-o

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by RevTheory » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:55 am

Mystic Mark and the rest of the open-borders, progressives can talk all the shit they want about it being Trump's policies being rejected but anyone who can still think clearly knows that the horribly-biased media and the demonrats have run a 3-year, non-stop, scorched-earth campaign of racial division, hate, fear and outright lies. They didn't run on policy because they can't win that argument: they ran on emotion and had to lie to get there.

Oh well, we'll take the temporary loss and keep moving America forward as best we can.

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by j-c-c » Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:01 am

RevTheory wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:55 am
Mystic Mark and the rest of the open-borders, progressives can talk all the shit they want about it being Trump's policies being rejected but anyone who can still think clearly knows that the horribly-biased media and the demonrats have run a 3-year, non-stop, scorched-earth campaign of racial division, hate, fear and outright lies. They didn't run on policy because they can't win that argument: they ran on emotion and had to lie to get there.

Oh well, we'll take the temporary loss and keep moving America forward as best we can.
You left out all the name calling, lies, deflection, divisiveness DT has daily added to to the discourse.

Labeling reporting DT's stupid crap as negative really should be directed at the instigator, not the messenger.

It's all about ratings/attention, right, but for who? :lol:

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Re: 2018 midterm election predictions

Post by mk e » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:46 pm

gmrocket wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:19 am


say it however you want..i posted here at 12 midnight on monday 538 said a 39 gain with an 88.5% chance of that happening

the low was 21 gain and the high something like 59

No, you didn't.

You posted that they said there was an 88.5% chance the house would flip and it has.

Then you also posted that they said there was an 80% chance the final count would be a 21-59 seat gain for the dems, and so far it 23 and counting so that was also correct.

That's what those numbers mean.
Mark
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