I have the sense that people do not read some of my citations.GRTfast wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:52 pm...
This is like the forth time in a month that someone has said that BS on here. This is why I can’t take any of you guys seriously. You’re just wrong, over and over. The problem is, there’s enough of you that you begin to beleive yourselves.
There was never a time in the 70’s where the consensus was that we were “decades from an ice age”. The vast majority of scientific studies and articles back them were predicting warming. A small minority talked about cooling, and were proven wrong. A Time magazine cover said something about global cooling. It was the media propagating a minority opinion. Educate yourself. Or don’t.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... nload=true
I am shocked.
Months back I posted a link to an MIT PhD thesis (so peer-reviewed). That thesis predates the 2008 article linked above by 31 years and is particularly relevant since it was actually written during the 1970s as a meta-analysis of existing contemporary literature.
There is no mystery as to what references the candidate used (listed below). Here is the abstract, i.e. a brief synopsis of his findings [my emphasis]:
(A consensus either way? I do not think so.)
CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY AND SIMULATION
WITH A GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL
ALAN DAVID ROBOCK
Submitted to the Department of Meteorology.on May 5, 1977 in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
Various theories of both internal and external causes of climate
change on the time scale of 100 years are critically examined. Volcanic
dust; solar variation; anthropogenic carbon dioxide, aerosols and heat;
and stochastic variability (almost intransitivity) are all considered
plausible. Data on the past variations of these forcings are collected.
Observational data on climate change during the past are also assembled,
and the sources of error in the data are evaluated.
A seasonal, zonally-averaged, vertically-averaged, highly-parameterizpd
numerical model, similar to that of Sellers (1973, 1974) is used
to test the above theories of climate change. The model simulates the
present climate fairly well, but several improvements are suggested for
further studies with the model. These include more accurate formulations
of cryospheric and other seasonal variations, radiative flux, and oceanic
heat flux and mixed layer depth variations.
Results show that volcanic dust and the natural atmospheric variability
are sufficient to explain the observed Northern Hemisphere climate
change of the past 100 years. Solar variation may have contributed
to the Little Ice Age, but its influence is not evident during the past
100 years. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide has a much larger effect than
anthropogenic heat, and is just now becoming important enough to cause
climate change. Anthropogenic aerosols are insufficiently understood to
determine their effects, but may cancel out the warming effects of carbon
dioxide and heat.
Thesis Supervisor: Edward N. Lorenz
Title: Professor of Meteorology
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