Rump recession

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mk e
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:52 am

86_regal wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:21 pm

I find it important to refresh the memories of those who've forgotten that the media's prescience of the last financial calamity could be described as nothing more than deafening silence (with the exception of a handful of kooks).

It was only until AFTER the fecal matter came in contact with the radial air movement device did we hear about it...
When the economy is growing it's more than a little tempting to not ask way or look to closely at the details.
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:40 am

mk e wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:28 am
No deal has been reached other than to delay the tariff hikes by 90 days.

The market will bump for sure on the news and well see a rally of 500+ points. The the corporate black periods will start an d it will go flat, then the Q4 reports will bring more growth warnings and it give the rally back...most likely.

I m a little sad that thectariffscwere delayed since 5hat means I'll probably be un the market when they hit....oh well.
Today the market has realized that the "agreement" means nothing as it appears to ge giving back the gains that came on the news.

Also this, since I know how concerned you guys are that I bought 90 day bonds a couple months ago. Back in Sept the T-note linked securities market inverted, now the actual T-note market has inverted.
Also on the minds of equity investors is the flattening of the U.S. yield curve, as yields on government debt continued fall Tuesday. On Monday, the yield on five-year government debt fell below the yield on three-year debt, a phenomenon which has preceded previous recessions, and an indicator that investors are more confident about current than future economic growth as the Federal Reserve raises rates.

A more widely followed spread, that between the 2-year yield TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.29% and the 10-year rate TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.73% tightened to 13.3 basis points, its narrowest in 11 years. This ratio is a popular gauge of future economic growth, and if the 10-year yield falls below the two-year, it will raise significant concerns of an impending recession.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-f ... 2018-12-04
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:03 am

hmmmmmm.......more concerns about deteriorating debt quality
FDIC chair: We need to be preparing for the next downturn...
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/fdic ... 35302.html
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:05 pm

Wow, terrible market day so far....time to go all in again.

And the ten year T-note is now sitting just 0.1% above the 2 year which is the closest its been since 2007.....normally a sell signal they say.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... tocks/amp/
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:38 pm

A few more nuggets of bad news in this article.

https://www.investors.com/news/economy/ ... -going-on/

One is that While the consumer Economic index as a whole is positive at 52.6 its been dropping and the 6 month index is now negative 46.4 dropping from 57.5 last Feb.
https://www.investors.com/news/economy/ ... dow-jones/
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Re: Rump recession

Post by j-c-c » Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:31 pm

Is this the cue to start blaming OB yet?

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Re: Rump recession

Post by gmrocket » Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:33 pm

Did the sky fall again today?

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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:30 am

j-c-c wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:31 pm
Is this the cue to start blaming OB yet?
Probably.

.....or that the house flipped

.....or that its look increasingly will Rump will be a 1 term blunder.

get it? 1 hit wonder - 1 term blubder... ..one if my better ones I think :)
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:31 am

gmrocket wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:33 pm
Did the sky fall again today?
For me personally it was a good day short term.

Longer term this was not such good news:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/aad2db4 ... 80%99.html
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:45 am

With the stock market having a bad morning its probably time for another graph....the 2-10 Treasury yield spread. Back in 2014 the spread was a solid 2.55% meaning investors see more long term risk than near term. But look at the trend down on the graph, a little bump after the election but that's now gone and its back on the original slope meaning investors see ever increasing near term risk across the economy as a whole.
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Re: Rump recession

Post by j-c-c » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:34 am

mk e wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:30 am
j-c-c wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:31 pm
Is this the cue to start blaming OB yet?
Probably.

.....or that the house flipped

.....or that its look increasingly will Rump will be a 1 term blunder.

get it? 1 hit wonder - 1 term blubder... ..one if my better ones I think :)
Keep your day job. :D

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Re: Rump recession

Post by Ken0069 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:40 am

"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
William Pitt, British Prime-Minister (1759-1806)


Big Boyz Toyz!

Global Warming Is a FRAUD!

mk e
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:01 pm

Ken0069 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:40 am
IT'S A CORRECTION DUMBASS!!!

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/06/news/c ... index.html
Yup....and your link is nearly a year old. This is 4th or is it 5th this year? At some point we start calling it a rolling bear market.......must time time to go "all in"....again.....
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Re: Rump recession

Post by j-c-c » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:04 pm

Ken0069 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:40 am
IT'S A CORRECTION DUMBASS!!!

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/06/news/c ... index.html
So was the depression.

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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:52 am

Another warning from Goldman that the global economy is slowing and US growth will likely drop under 2% in 2019.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/gold ... 00618.html
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