Rump recession

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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:28 am

gmrocket wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:58 am
mk e wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:37 am
So you're again saying that you're already all in but magically able to go all in again?

Or you're saying you're just talking out your a$$...again?
It's fvckn investor lingo you clown
Ahh, now taking out your a$$ is investor lingo. ....I suppose that's true ;)

So now you're all in for the 3rd or 4th time this month alone.
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:31 am

The housing market that never really recovered is stalling....and the tax "cuts" are a big part of the reason why.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/gold ... 32181.html
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Re: Rump recession

Post by gmrocket » Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:38 pm

mk e wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:28 am
gmrocket wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:58 am
mk e wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:37 am
So you're again saying that you're already all in but magically able to go all in again?

Or you're saying you're just talking out your a$$...again?
It's fvckn investor lingo you clown
Ahh, now taking out your a$$ is investor lingo. ....I suppose that's true ;)

So now you're all in for the 3rd or 4th time this month alone.
Ya, buy low sell high...crazy radical theory huh

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Re: Rump recession

Post by gmrocket » Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:39 pm

mk e wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:31 am
The housing market that never really recovered is stalling....and the tax "cuts" are a big part of the reason why.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/gold ... 32181.html
Hey, how many more days left?

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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:11 pm

Right, with the money that's already invested so effectively buy high then sell low to re- buy low while paying paying transaction fees and taxes with each move and claim it makes sense....just like perpetual motion machines but only if they use magnets :lol:

I think we've heard enough.....
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:26 pm

Another analyst predicting the 2018 rolling bear market to continue through 2019

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yahoo. ... 50630.html
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Re: Rump recession

Post by pdq67 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:52 pm

As old as I have become, I sadly realize that so-called, "OWNING", a house is just that, "SO-CALLED"!!

I don't really own shit unless I can pack it, otherwise it's the Gov's!! Maybe gold and silver metal as well as a gun bought out of a trunk down an alley on Sat. evening off some Dude you trust to tell you that it is hot??

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Re: Rump recession

Post by exhaustgases » Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:05 pm

Its gona be a Marxist demon rat congress recession that is coming. It was winning, and people had jobs and $, I guess they don't like that.
Hey yeah lets do it like Venezuela.

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Re: Rump recession

Post by Ken0069 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:50 am

The Recession Myth
Stephen Moore
Nov 27, 2018
There's an old saying that Wall Street economists have predicted eight of the last two recessions. The bears in the economics profession keep getting paid a lot of money misreading the nation's economic weather vanes -- whether it was the power and durability of the Reagan expansion in the 1980s, the ferocious bull market of the late 1990s, the after-effects of the 9/11 attacks, or most recently the phenomenal revival of growth in President Donald Trump's first years in office.

Most of Wall Street's top economic gurus thought Trump would crash the stock market and the world economy, and here we are with near 4 percent growth over the past six months and a prediction for the year of close to 3.5 percent. That's not a crash. A stopped clock is right twice a day, but the Keynesians on Wall Street are hardly any better than that.

All of this is to say the recent frightening claims by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and other scribes that the economy is likely to slide into recession or a serious skid next year with growth of 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent -- half our current pace -- should be greeted with a collective yawn.

Sure, the economy may slip into a recession by 2020. Who knows? The growth rate is cooling down from its blistering 4 percent pace of late. But the last people investors or employers should be listening to are the professional pessimists. Most of these forecasters are relying on a purely Keynesian analysis of the economy and are basing their gloom on the idea of the "sugar high" of the tax cuts and government spending hikes wearing off next year.

Just listen to this illogic from the Goldman Sachs report: "tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus" from the Trump tax law and $300 billion of new spending will be "key drivers of the deceleration."

No. Any move to reduce government spending is a positive for the economy. This is why Trump should veto every spending bill headed his way between now and the 2020 election. In the 1990s, the economy boomed and the stock market soared even as government spending fell by 3.5 percentage points of GDP, the biggest amount since the end of World War II.

The tax cuts aren't primarily consumer-demand focused. The intention and effect of these tax cuts has been to incentivize American businesses to invest, build and hire by increasing their after-tax rates of return on domestic expansions. One impact has been that the United States is sucking capital in from the rest of the world, as reflected in the strength of the dollar.

This effect doesn't "wear off;" it is still picking up steam. The United States is simply a better place to invest in today than it was two years ago.

Equally flawed is the idea that the economic recovery has been going on for a decade and is now running out of gas. No, the boom began on Nov. 8, 2016, not in 2009. The recovery was anemic in the Obama years.

One reason Art Laffer, Larry Kudlow and I were so confident in our predictions to candidate Donald Trump that we could get four or five years of 3 to 4 percent growth was that the recovery from the Great Recession was so flat. We were running $2 trillion a year below trend from a normal recovery. There is still a lot of juice left in this economy.

Business investment is up about 7 percent -- notwithstanding the slowdown since August. Admittedly, the trends in the housing sector are worrisome -- thanks in no small part to the Fed rate hikes.

Trump is right that the Fed made a major error in its last go-around. The stock market sell-off dates back to the Fed rate hike announcements earlier this fall. The Fed was worried that the economy was growing too quickly at 4 percent. In the 1980s, we had quarters of 8 percent growth and years of above 5 percent growth. This corresponded with lower inflation. For the umpteenth time, Jerome Powell: Growth doesn't cause inflation. Increased output reduces prices.

If there is anything good to come of the stock sell-off of recent weeks, it is that the Fed is now much less likely to stay on its path of ill-advised interest-rate hike destruction in 2019.

The other big concern is the trade talks with China. This is the unavoidable confrontation with a rogue nation, whose behavior economically, financially and militarily is hostile to the security and economic well-being of the United States.

Beijing's abusive trade practices and theft of U.S. intellectual property ($300 billion stolen per year), are intolerable. In the short term, the trade dispute is bad for growth, bad for consumers and bad for stocks. But if/when Trump prevails and gets the concessions from China, the market upside is gigantic.

There are a hundred reasons to be optimistic. Oil prices are likely to remain moderate, with gas prices below $3 a gallon, which is a giant tax cut for American consumers and industries. Construction and manufacturing are as strong as they've been in decades. The tax cuts don't start to expire until 2024 -- five years from now. Trump is likely to score more trade victories in the months ahead, thus isolating China and putting more pressure on President Xi Jinping to make a deal.

The deregulation agenda under Trump is likely to accelerate in 2019 and 2020 as the one lever the Executive Branch has to clear roadblocks to growth. Wages are rising now for the lowest-income Americans, as The Wall Street Journal recently reported. That should keep consumer spending at a healthy clip.

Trump chief economist Larry Kudlow says that "a recession is so far in the distance I can't see it." Nor can I. The only ones who can see it are the Trump haters who want it to happen.

From THIS article.
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
William Pitt, British Prime-Minister (1759-1806)


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Re: Rump recession

Post by gmrocket » Tue Nov 27, 2018 6:58 am

Ken0069 wrote:
Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:50 am
The Recession Myth
Stephen Moore
Nov 27, 2018
There's an old saying that Wall Street economists have predicted eight of the last two recessions. The bears in the economics profession keep getting paid a lot of money misreading the nation's economic weather vanes -- whether it was the power and durability of the Reagan expansion in the 1980s, the ferocious bull market of the late 1990s, the after-effects of the 9/11 attacks, or most recently the phenomenal revival of growth in President Donald Trump's first years in office.

Most of Wall Street's top economic gurus thought Trump would crash the stock market and the world economy, and here we are with near 4 percent growth over the past six months and a prediction for the year of close to 3.5 percent. That's not a crash. A stopped clock is right twice a day, but the Keynesians on Wall Street are hardly any better than that.

All of this is to say the recent frightening claims by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and other scribes that the economy is likely to slide into recession or a serious skid next year with growth of 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent -- half our current pace -- should be greeted with a collective yawn.

Sure, the economy may slip into a recession by 2020. Who knows? The growth rate is cooling down from its blistering 4 percent pace of late. But the last people investors or employers should be listening to are the professional pessimists. Most of these forecasters are relying on a purely Keynesian analysis of the economy and are basing their gloom on the idea of the "sugar high" of the tax cuts and government spending hikes wearing off next year.

Just listen to this illogic from the Goldman Sachs report: "tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus" from the Trump tax law and $300 billion of new spending will be "key drivers of the deceleration."

No. Any move to reduce government spending is a positive for the economy. This is why Trump should veto every spending bill headed his way between now and the 2020 election. In the 1990s, the economy boomed and the stock market soared even as government spending fell by 3.5 percentage points of GDP, the biggest amount since the end of World War II.

The tax cuts aren't primarily consumer-demand focused. The intention and effect of these tax cuts has been to incentivize American businesses to invest, build and hire by increasing their after-tax rates of return on domestic expansions. One impact has been that the United States is sucking capital in from the rest of the world, as reflected in the strength of the dollar.

This effect doesn't "wear off;" it is still picking up steam. The United States is simply a better place to invest in today than it was two years ago.

Equally flawed is the idea that the economic recovery has been going on for a decade and is now running out of gas. No, the boom began on Nov. 8, 2016, not in 2009. The recovery was anemic in the Obama years.

One reason Art Laffer, Larry Kudlow and I were so confident in our predictions to candidate Donald Trump that we could get four or five years of 3 to 4 percent growth was that the recovery from the Great Recession was so flat. We were running $2 trillion a year below trend from a normal recovery. There is still a lot of juice left in this economy.

Business investment is up about 7 percent -- notwithstanding the slowdown since August. Admittedly, the trends in the housing sector are worrisome -- thanks in no small part to the Fed rate hikes.

Trump is right that the Fed made a major error in its last go-around. The stock market sell-off dates back to the Fed rate hike announcements earlier this fall. The Fed was worried that the economy was growing too quickly at 4 percent. In the 1980s, we had quarters of 8 percent growth and years of above 5 percent growth. This corresponded with lower inflation. For the umpteenth time, Jerome Powell: Growth doesn't cause inflation. Increased output reduces prices.

If there is anything good to come of the stock sell-off of recent weeks, it is that the Fed is now much less likely to stay on its path of ill-advised interest-rate hike destruction in 2019.

The other big concern is the trade talks with China. This is the unavoidable confrontation with a rogue nation, whose behavior economically, financially and militarily is hostile to the security and economic well-being of the United States.

Beijing's abusive trade practices and theft of U.S. intellectual property ($300 billion stolen per year), are intolerable. In the short term, the trade dispute is bad for growth, bad for consumers and bad for stocks. But if/when Trump prevails and gets the concessions from China, the market upside is gigantic.

There are a hundred reasons to be optimistic. Oil prices are likely to remain moderate, with gas prices below $3 a gallon, which is a giant tax cut for American consumers and industries. Construction and manufacturing are as strong as they've been in decades. The tax cuts don't start to expire until 2024 -- five years from now. Trump is likely to score more trade victories in the months ahead, thus isolating China and putting more pressure on President Xi Jinping to make a deal.

The deregulation agenda under Trump is likely to accelerate in 2019 and 2020 as the one lever the Executive Branch has to clear roadblocks to growth. Wages are rising now for the lowest-income Americans, as The Wall Street Journal recently reported. That should keep consumer spending at a healthy clip.

Trump chief economist Larry Kudlow says that "a recession is so far in the distance I can't see it." Nor can I. The only ones who can see it are the Trump haters who want it to happen.

From THIS article.
Absolutely 100% dead on.

I'm sure our resident talking head engineer will enlighten is with one of his graphs on how it really is.

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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:05 am

It's true that nothing in the future is for certain but what's is the past is certain so there is no question the US GDP growth jumped from 1.8 to 3% after the election then began retuning to base as it slowed to 2.2. The stimulus (aka tax cut and spending increase) drove it to 4.2, then it dropped to 3.5. That's certain.

What comes next is not certain. The vast majority of actual economist (not economic commentators) believe that if nothing changes it will settle back down to mid to high 1s by 2020....but things always change.

Labor and interest costs are rising, the newly divided government will likely not agree on spending, no telling what will happen with the trade wars. Together they make growth difficult and many large corps (ford, gm, ge to name a just few that are well known) are already into restructuring mode and cutting heads. The corp I work for will cut 8% by end 2020 because the increased sales force last year failed to deliver sales growth and that seems a typical. A freind just left sales manager an old corp because growth was all driven by price (profit) reduction and took a sales job in tech...who are now adding sales people to try to maintain growth which is dropping. The signs or trouble are all there.

If the government cuts spending next year as many here would like by say 10% we will be in recession. Government spending is roughly 20% of GDP so a 10% cut would take 2% of GDP, BOOM! recession. Consumer spending is 68% of us gdp so if people get even a little spooked and cut spending and increase savings by just a couple %, recession. That's all it takes........
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:31 am

Margin debt has dropped sharply in the past month which means investors are taking safer positions, but for Ken here's an article that says its probably nothing.....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.market ... 83DF3427B1
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Re: Rump recession

Post by gmrocket » Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:55 am

Oh boy, I asked for a graph...and he gives us two 🙄

You are 100% right on a recession coming in the future, at some point, down the road, probably after today sometime.....and before we burn up from the climate changing...I guarantee a recession will happen between those two points in time.

See, no fancy graph.

Oh, isn't it weird when a company announces a major restructuring, the stocks usually see a nice up tick? Just like GM's did yesterday after the announcement..

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Re: Rump recession

Post by Ken0069 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:38 am

gmrocket wrote:
Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:55 am
Oh boy, I asked for a graph...and he gives us two 🙄

You are 100% right on a recession coming in the future, at some point, down the road, probably after today sometime.....and before we burn up from the climate changing...I guarantee a recession will happen between those two points in time.

See, no fancy graph.

Oh, isn't it weird when a company announces a major restructuring, the stocks usually see a nice up tick? Just like GM's did yesterday after the announcement..
This might have already been mentioned, but, anyone else but me see this latest move by GM as linked to demonKKKrats taking over the House in January and they think the shit is going to hit the fan? :-k
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
William Pitt, British Prime-Minister (1759-1806)


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Re: Rump recession

Post by gmrocket » Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:45 am

Ken0069 wrote:
Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:38 am
gmrocket wrote:
Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:55 am
Oh boy, I asked for a graph...and he gives us two 🙄

You are 100% right on a recession coming in the future, at some point, down the road, probably after today sometime.....and before we burn up from the climate changing...I guarantee a recession will happen between those two points in time.

See, no fancy graph.

Oh, isn't it weird when a company announces a major restructuring, the stocks usually see a nice up tick? Just like GM's did yesterday after the announcement..
This might have already been mentioned, but, anyone else but me see this latest move by GM as linked to demonKKKrats taking over the House in January and they think the shit is going to hit the fan? :-k
Ya, could be GM seeing the future as not looking bright due to the house being run by a business hating party..

Here in Ontario, with the Oshawa plant getting shuttered..business experts said yesterday Ontario is the most expensive place in North America to do business.. which is because of a 15 year left wing government.

The lefties just don't understand their own radical policies drives businesses and jobs away

You watch, GM will move to states which are less restrictive
Last edited by gmrocket on Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:51 am, edited 2 times in total.

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