Rump recession

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mk e
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Rump recession

Post by mk e » Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:13 am

Since about February the talk of trade wars pushed stocks into correction territory where it remains in spite of the huge stimulus package Congress passed.

The side effect of the stimulus is inflation which is countered by short term interest rate hikes.....which has the US bond market approaching a rate inversions with short term 2 year rates just 0.25% below long term 10 year rates and the fed is saying expect another .5%to be added to short term rates making an inversion almost certain. If an inversion happens a recession almost certainly will follow.

The Rump effect has now gone global with bond inversions shaping up pretty much everywhere:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomb ... treasuries

It turns out a US presidents words do matter....Buckle up.
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gmrocket
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Re: Rump recession

Post by gmrocket » Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:58 am

Since feb I'm up 5.9% which was more than I expected. We've been hearing about the markets crashing since Election Day...even if there is a yuggge pullback, my gains since nov 2016 far outweigh your bs

Maybe you need some advice?

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Re: Rump recession

Post by sanfordandson » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:11 am

gmrocket wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:58 am
Since feb I'm up 5.9% which was more than I expected. We've been hearing about the markets crashing since Election Day...even if there is a yuggge pullback, my gains since nov 2016 far outweigh your bs

Maybe you need some advice?
Quoting this post for future reference.... :mrgreen:

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Re: Rump recession

Post by gmrocket » Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:50 pm

sanfordandson wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:11 am
gmrocket wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:58 am
Since feb I'm up 5.9% which was more than I expected. We've been hearing about the markets crashing since Election Day...even if there is a yuggge pullback, my gains since nov 2016 far outweigh your bs

Maybe you need some advice?
Quoting this post for future reference.... :mrgreen:
Would quoting it change my gains from feb till now? Nope, not one bit.

The markets have been on fire since thatbday trump was elected..my profits since that day have been fantastic to say the least...way more than 5.9%..am I going to stay in what I'm in? Maybe, maybe not...I've said before on here I'm not foolish enough think this can keep up

I give you permission too quote this as well

Unlike you, I'm taking advantage of what's happening...not sitting on the sidelines bytching , complaining and praying things will go bad ...so I can say "huh, well there ya go...the markets are slowing down". Kinda like telling everyone it's gonna rain, maybe someday...it's coming

You guys are such negative losers ,,always hoping for failure. It's obvious your not in the markets because your jeliousy is so blatant.

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Re: Rump recession

Post by RevTheory » Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:59 pm

These trolls have been unsuccessful in getting President Trump for crap they made up about the past so they're going for stuff they hope will happen in the future.

mk e
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Re: Rump recession

Post by mk e » Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:36 pm

No need to wait for the future, the world bond market is in trouble today, the USstock market has been in correction mode since Feb so you can have that right now ;)
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1989TransAm
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Re: Rump recession

Post by 1989TransAm » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:29 pm

President Trump is putting America first. :D

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Re: Rump recession

Post by gmrocket » Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:23 pm

mk e wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:36 pm
No need to wait for the future, the world bond market is in trouble today, the USstock market has been in correction mode since Feb so you can have that right now ;)
Well mr engineer...I'll take my gain since the correction started in feb.

And there will be a recession, some day , in the future...even if it's 20 years from now and trump died ten years from now....you'll still blame him. We get it

Maybe some day I can teach you how to do good even when things go south,, or maybe not.

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Re: Rump recession

Post by lefty o » Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:22 pm

if we are in a correction market, you couldnt prove it by me, all my investments except 1 are up a decent amount in the last quarter.

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Re: Rump recession

Post by 1989TransAm » Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:00 am

These are the same clowns that predicted that the stock market would tank as soon as President Trump took office.

Brian P
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Re: Rump recession

Post by Brian P » Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:03 am

My portfolio has also been going up (and I'm not even invested in US stocks) but I'm also paying heed to the situation presented in the first post, which historically has been a leading indicator of a recession.

Even without the influence of tariffs (which for the most part haven't started yet) the economy and the stock market have been heading up for an awfully long time. It's 9 years since the bottom. Consumer debt is very high and it has been propelled by very low interest rates. The concern here is that increases in interest rates may crash the housing market and reduce consumer spending in general.

Tariffs, if applied by the USA and in retaliation by other countries, would compound this. Canada is part of trade agreements with Europe and Asia that don't involve the USA. Tariffs to and from the USA would certainly have an immediate negative effect, but long term we can work with the rest of the world. I'll happily vacation in europe and I'll happily drive a european car (I already do).

Few in the business community expect Trump tariffs to last for long, if they are even applied at all. Everyone here is operating "business as usual until we can't".

I still own stocks (just not those of US companies) ... but I've been selling call options against them with the expectation that the stock markets are near a top.

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Re: Rump recession

Post by John Wallace » Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:43 am

If one just got in the market since Trump came into power, they would have missed a LOT of profit!
The last 6 months though have been lackluster.
I'm more a contrarian investor.
When everyone gets excited and into the market, it's time to get out.

:(
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Re: Rump recession

Post by David Redszus » Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:41 am

Since 2016, the DowJones industrial index has gone from 16,000 to 25,000, an increase of 56%.
How well did it do under Obama?

The stock market and the bond market are typically inversely related. When one goes up, the other goes down.
Price adjustments and profit taking, as well as asset redistribution are normal aspects of the market.

Find another issue to whine about; you guys have lost this one.

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Re: Rump recession

Post by sanfordandson » Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:01 pm

David Redszus wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:41 am
Since 2016, the DowJones industrial index has gone from 16,000 to 25,000, an increase of 56%.
How well did it do under Obama?
+149% under Obummer.

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Re: Rump recession

Post by David Redszus » Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:49 pm

sanfordandson wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:01 pm
David Redszus wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:41 am
Since 2016, the DowJones industrial index has gone from 16,000 to 25,000, an increase of 56%.
How well did it do under Obama?
+149% under Obummer. 12000 to 16000.
Using your math, Trump's numbers are 156%. Where is the recession?

How many trillions did the Fed dump into the economy to help Obuma?
What were the employment numbers? How about minority employment?

You guys lost...big time, and are still losing. :lol:

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