Kim Jong Un Calls Off Guam Missile Threat

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David Redszus
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Re: Kim Jong Un Calls Off Guam Missile Threat

Post by David Redszus » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:48 pm

China has directed that North Korean grocery stores be closed.

Why would they do that?

Ratu
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Re: Kim Jong Un Calls Off Guam Missile Threat

Post by Ratu » Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:05 pm

If you are serious about understanding what is going on you really ought to listen to what President Putin said about it. In brief he mentioned that Kim has learned the lesson from Libya and Iraq. He seeks a deterrent to avoid the same fate as those two and so he is building one. He is also well aware that there is presently a state of war between the USA and DPRK (no peace treaty has been signed).

Both China and Russia have tried to broker negotiations and a peace treaty between DPRK and the USA over the years. The USA has rejected overtures at diplomacy while claiming otherwise. DPRK has consistently held the position that it will cease with the nuke tests and developments if the USA military "exercises" held each year are cancelled and a peace treaty (including a guarantee not to attack DPRK) is executed. They have also held to the position that such a negotiation must be direct between the parties (DPRK & USA) and not via intermediaries such as China or Russia.

Understand that the DPRK government does not fully trust either China or Russia for reasons going back to the Korean War in the '50s. They are well aware of how Stalin, ostensibly an ally, was not interested in defending the North against the US and nor was Mao. Indeed Mao only ordered Chinese "volunteers" to enter North Korea and push the US military back when his generals explained to him that were the North to fall, then the US would have the ability to destabilise the entire northern-east of China.

Anyway, the take home is this. Presently Kim is winning. He has a deterrent in development. He is successfully manoeuvring China and South Korea closer together (their interests overlap, as they are coming to realise), meanwhile gradually causing the diminution of US influence right across the peninsula (not to mention across the rest of Asia). There is no military option on the table no matter what President Trump may tweet or threaten in the UN- not unless he is prepared to order the killing of millions of people in both the DPRK and South Korea as well. Apart from being a war crime, unleashing this violence would wreck the world economy for decades to follow, not to mention result in a major, likely permanent set-back for US diplomacy and status throughout Asia. Talk about an own goal.

By the way, the DPRK leadership are well aware of the "good cop, bad cop" play and would not fall for something so banal. Anyway, it is more than likely they suspect, as do most analysts worth listening to, that the US government is disjoint and ridden with factionalism. They'll not take it more seriously than as evidence of this factor. On the other hand it is dangerous as it would be a major problem if the DPRK ever concluded what the Russians appear have done; that is that it is not possible to deal with the US diplomatically (every deal that the USA agreed to in Syria has been broken... by the actions of the USA). that would be another own goal for the USA- something that few North Americans appear cognisant of.

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