Stock Market Crash?

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MDHovland
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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by MDHovland » Tue Nov 04, 2014 8:05 pm

I see this is still kind of an unattended, unpopular thread.

The last three posts were timely - given the market behavior- but I found them to be little help. Tony, your second to last post was very well thought out and articulated. Thanks again.

I can't help but counter some gloom and doom with a couple links myself.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU& ... 8703216532

And, the S&P 500 Index:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... 7785135829

The last post here was made on October 13th. Since October 15th, each of these popular indexes have rallied 9.8 and 10.5%, respectively. They are now at all time high values.

I could shout that out with big bold fonts, but why? Stock markets are volatile. Volatility sells press.

If I haven't said it before or clearly enough, the talking heads in print and on CNBC are there for entertainment purposes only... and to sell copy. Still, I'm looking for a response to -

"What alternatives are there?"

Rather than links to various, and seemingly unlimited, stories and quotes from someone about why this asset does that and the other does the other thing (not to mention what WILL happen), why not simply observe the evidence?

As I see it, "you have to dance with the one who brung ya!"

I don't disagree with previous posts at all. I am a gold bug myself. 30+ years ago, I even had US treasuries that were guaranteeing 12% returns for one year. Had I known then what I know now, I'd have plowed my measly trust fund (from my father's passing in 1967) into 30 year treasuries paying a guaranteed 14%!

$25,000 would have become $1,273,753.96 by 2012. No volatility to experience - the only requirement would have been to trust Uncle Sam.

In hindsight, Uncle would have paid it back. In further hindsight, the fast cars and fast times of the 80's turned that $25k into nothing except a decent education for me (and not simply a college education!).

Instead, I worked for the man until I was confident enough to work for myself. I know there are many ways to make money and that not all of them work all the time.

Don't get me wrong - I understand the risk and folly of fiat currency and the fractional reserve banking system. I can't justify burying my head in the sand for the next and last 35 years of life. If the music stops, there will be another dance to go to. Right now, the dance - for me - is in the stock market.

I've simply had to learn to live with and navigate the uncertainty and volatility. It's really not that complicated.

My only regret is that the stock market (recently) did not decline further and that the correction seems to be over. I have above average levels of powder to load in the chamber. I know I'll get another opportunity. I'll also have a strong sense of when to do it when it does present itself.

Said another way, I'll argue in favor of the market.

Mark




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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by BCjohnny » Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:38 pm

Hi Mark. What's with the small writing, and what's your occupation?
"If an honest man is wrong, after demonstrating that he is wrong, he either stops being wrong or he stops being honest." Anon

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by sanfordandson » Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:36 pm

Dow sets another record and the fear mongers are quiet! :lol:

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by 1989TransAm » Wed Nov 05, 2014 10:11 pm

I think with Yellon trying to get out of the Quantataving Easing(buying our own bonds) there is going to be some adjustment to the stock market. We shall see as to how much.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by MDHovland » Thu Nov 06, 2014 12:21 pm

BCjohnny wrote:Hi Mark. What's with the small writing, and what's your occupation?


Hi. Well, I tend to write a fair bit and the reduced font size takes up less space. That, and it's easier for me to read. (Really - I mean it!)

Next, thanks for asking. At present, I research and prepare small business start-up plans. Not much of that going on lately, though, but that's a hat I wear. Was a decent gig until 07-09.

Currently, I've been spending a little time with a young man whose family agriculture business is beginning to take a pretty good root - now in 14 countries. He would say he's learning some things from me, but I'm learning far more from them. They are wonderful people.

I also direct a few investment accounts for former clients. Which leads me into the meat of my reply, and likely one you could have been suspecting.

I've spent a period spanning three decades in the investment business (either directly or indirectly), including having had an 11% ownership interest in a brokerage firm. In that business, I've seen a lot. Not "all of it," but a lot.

But whenever the market gets "hinkey and wonkey" like it has, I find that others sound off. This happens in almost any community including this one. I then find it difficult to hold my tongue...!

As for fear mongers - there will always be that element. I don't judge them - there's always a bit of truth somewhere. I do struggle with a lack of understanding by others. Some times it is simple ignorance. But then, there are still a lot of things I don't understand or am ignorant of.

With regard to the markets, there is nothing difficult about the retail business. We buy low and sell high. If we can't (or, if we are wrong), we have a blow-out sale very early on before losses mount. Supply and demand.

Throughout history, men and women have always been lured into something that - usually through their own error - results in an irrational distrust. When I see this happen in the financial and capital markets, I can't help but think it's mostly ignorance. Not stupidity... ignorance; a lack of information.

Given my previously stated disdain for the media, I DO have something that's worth reading to share here. It was written for the Museum of American Finance recently. More amazing still is that it was written by one of those pundits I cringe at giving mental ascent to - Bob Pisani of CNBC. I must say, he impressed me with this article.

I remember when Pisani was working the Real Estate beat about the same time the SoCal Belle, Sue Herera, was hired by NBC. Neither of them impressed me much but that was likely due to the fact I have a natural bent toward evidence rather than hearsay/journalism as well as the fact that my mentor - a money manager at Smith Barney in Beverly Hills at the time - was occasionally interviewed by Sue in their LA studio.

The chasm in LA between headlines and reality in finance is as wide as it is between Wall Street and the rest of us, but there's a lot of money out there too. Wall Street is just Hollywood with a different GPS coordinate. The only part I hated about west coast time was having the market open at 6:30am.

Mike (my mentor) is a very pragmatic fellow, and I guess I caught the same spirit from him. We are technicians, supply versus demand, smart money against dumb money. I should say we are "followers of smart money." Stories sell but prices tell. Trade management and disciplines are imperative; the difference between success and failure.

So, we chart - technically and analytically, and act in what is often a contrarian manner. I wish more people, including brokers, did. Especially brokers. I find it easy to tell when risk is high or not. If I can, others can too.

Back to Pisani's article; it's worth a read! It dispels a great deal of wrong thinking. I guess I owe him an apology for all the times I murmured under my breath how much of a tool he was.

The article is titled - "Plundered by Harpies."

Now, I knew what a Harpy was but I never really got what the true meaning and inference could be. It's an uncanny simile with respect to Wall Street.

Enjoy:

http://www.moaf.org/publications-collec ... arpies.pdf


Finally, the only thing that may be worse than bad or untimely information is NO information. I can usually tell when information is bad but I will become pretty inactive and lock down when there is none at all.

By the way, I personally think there is a lot less risk in this market now than there was in September. I'm on the hunt and looking to go more long. Just keeping an eye out for good setups.

I've been a fairly silent member of this forum for several years and a member of another for twice as long simply because I have an interest in motorsports. Around twelve years ago, I nearly got back into bracket racing. My son has gone in a different direction - motocross - and I can no longer justify it. I have a couple acquaintances who are active in ET racing, so I am satisfied to live vicariously through them. Sort of. (They each have 7.20-7.30 cars along with fairly recent championship titles and all I ever aspired to was a simple 10.50 deal to play around with. I did have a low 12 second car 30 years ago.)

I admit I was casting some bait to see if there were any fish in this pond. There you have it! My cat's out of that litter box, now, isn't it... ...

Best,
Mark





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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Kevin Johnson » Fri Nov 07, 2014 7:33 am

Small fonts allow a reader to more easily look at groups of words for quicker processing.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Warpspeed » Fri Nov 07, 2014 3:23 pm

Back in ancient times, small fonts WERE usually very difficult to read.

These days with very large screen high resolution LCD displays, smaller fonts do offer the advantage of being able to fit a lot more onto a single page.

Anyhow, if you click on "view" then "zoom in" you can make it appear as huge as you wish on your own screen.
Cheers, Tony.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by sanfordandson » Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:24 pm

More records set, on good heathcare news no less!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/ ... A020141118

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by sanfordandson » Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:38 pm

Smashing more records!

Where is this "crash" you speak of?? :lol: :^o

http://www.ibtimes.com/dow-jones-indust ... rt-1736264
the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which measures 30 large industrial stocks, gained 52.98 points, or 0.30 percent, to a record intraday high of 17,957.76; the S&P 500 Index added 5.15 points, or 0.24 percent, to a record intraday high of 2,077.08. The Nasdaq Composite rose 16.12 points, or 0.35 percent, to 4,784.85. In midday trading, the Dow gained 81.11 points, or 0.45 percent, to 17,981.21; The S&P 500 added 6.19 points, or 0.30 percent, to $2,078.01; the Nasdaq climbed 16.83 points, or 0.35 percent, to 4,786.27.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by sanfordandson » Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:04 pm

It's like a broken "record" Pun intended...LOL

Again..where is this crash? Probably have to wait for a teatard to take the oval office. Then we will see the "crash".

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102291724
Record-setting day: Dow's first finish above 18,000

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Warpspeed » Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:10 pm

I just sit here and polish my big pile of silver bricks, and laugh at you guys holding junk paper, or fantasy blips on a screen.

The Chinese and Russians are loading up on cheap gold as fast as they possibly can with soon to be worthless US dollars. They are very wise.

The crooked Zionist Wall Steet banker types, are clever and cunning, with their lies and their market rigging and manipulation.

Wise always trumps cunning in the end, wait and see........
Last edited by Warpspeed on Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cheers, Tony.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by sanfordandson » Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:16 pm

Warpspeed wrote:I just sit here and polish my big pile of silver bricks, and laugh at you guys holding paper, or fantasy blips on a screen.
Says the guy who predicted economic collapse and Obama declaring martial law....in 2009! :lol: :lol: :lol: :roll: =D> :^o

Yea i won't put any "stock" in to your predictions. :D

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Warpspeed » Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:17 pm

Its not over yet my friend.
Cheers, Tony.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by sanfordandson » Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:24 pm

Silver prices down 25% last 6 months...keep polishing that turd!


Image

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Warpspeed » Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:43 pm

Yes indeed, and Gold and Oil are both well down too.
Hardly surprising if you undersand the games being played.
None of this is due to supply and demand or normal market activity.
Its all due to market rigging for various political purposes.

While market rigging can work for a while, even go on for a very long time, it has never lasted forever.
You cannot go on spending more than you earn, as the US government thinks it can.
You cannot go on borrowing forever without paying anything back as Europe thinks it can.

I have no idea when the system is going to totally break down, only that eventual breakdown of an unsustainable system is absolutely certain.
Cheers, Tony.

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