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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby Ken0069 » Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:17 am

You probably won't see the f...ing M0R0N sanford post this one even though it's from one of his often quoted writers. This one doesn't fit his "warmer" agenda and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't post it, so I'll put it her to make sure all of you can read it!

Science Under President Trump: End the Bias in Government-Funded Research
December 21st, 2016 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Image

From THIS article by Dr Roy Spencer that includes numerous embedded links as references.

Dr Spencer wrote:You might expect that my background in climate research would mean my suggestions to a Trump Administration would be all climate-related. And there’s no question that climate would be a primary focus, especially neutering the Endangerment Finding by the EPA which, if left unchecked, will weaken our economy and destroy jobs, with no measurable benefit to the climate system.

But there’s a bigger problem in U.S. government funded research of which the climate issue is just one example. It involves bias in the way that government agencies fund science.

Government funds science to support pre-determined policy outcomes

So, you thought government-funded science is objective?

Oh, that’s adorable.

Since politicians are ultimately in charge of deciding how much money agencies receive to dole out to the research community, it is inevitable that politics and desired outcomes influence the science the public pays for.

Using climate as an example, around thirty years ago various agencies started issuing requests for proposals (RFPs) for scientists to research the ways in which humans are affecting climate. Climate research up until that time was mostly looking into natural climate fluctuations, since the ocean-atmosphere is a coupled nonlinear dynamical system, capable of producing climate change without any external forcing whatsoever.

Giddy from the regulatory success to limit the production of ozone-destroying chemicals in the atmosphere with the 1973 Montreal Protocol, the government turned its sights on carbon dioxide and global warming.

While ozone was a relatively minor issue with minor regulatory impact, CO2 is the Big Kahuna. Everything humans do requires energy, and for decades to come that energy will mostly come from fossil fuels, the burning of which produces CO2.

The National Academies, which are supposed to provide independent advice to the nation on new directions in science, were asked by the government to tell the government to study human causes of climate change. (See how that works?)

Research RFPs were worded in such a way that researchers could blame virtually any change they saw on humans, not Mother Nature. And as I like to say, if you offer scientists billions of dollars to find something… they will do their best to find it. As a result, every change researchers saw in nature was suddenly mankind’s fault.

The problem with attribution in global warming research is that any source of warming will look about the same, whether human-caused or nature-caused. The land will warm faster than the ocean. The high northern latitudes will warm the most. Winters will warm somewhat more than summers. The warming will be somewhat greater at 10 km altitude than at the surface. It doesn’t matter what caused the warming. So, it’s easy for the experts to say the warming is “consistent with” human causation, without mentioning it could also be “consistent with” natural causation.

The result of this pernicious, incestuous relationship between government and the research community is biased findings by researchers tasked to find that which they were paid to find. The problem has been studied at the Cato Institute by Pat Michaels, among others; Judith Curry has provided a good summary of some of the related issues.

The problem is bigger than climate research

The overarching goal of every regulatory agency is to write regulations. That’s their reason for existence.

It’s not to strengthen the economy. Or protect jobs. It’s to regulate.

As a result, the EPA continues the push to make the environment cleaner and cleaner, no matter the cost to society.

How does the EPA justify, on scientific grounds, the effort to push our pollution levels to near-zero?

It comes from the widespread assumption that, if we know huge amounts of some substance is a danger, then even tiny amounts must be be a danger as well.

This is how the government can use, say, extreme radiation exposure which is lethal, and extrapolate that to the claim that thousands of people die every year from even low levels of radiation exposure.

The only problem is that it is probably not true; it is the result of bad statistical analysis. The assumption that any amount of a potentially dangerous substance is also dangerous is the so-called linear no-threshold issue, which undergirds much of our over-regulated society.

In fact, decades of research by people like Ed Calabrese has suggested that exposure to low levels of things which are considered toxic in large amounts actually strength the human body and make it more resilient — even exposure to radiation. You let your children get sick because it will strengthen their immune systems later in life. If you protected them from all illnesses, it could prove fatal later in life. Read about the Russian family Lost in the Taiga for 40 years, and how their eventual exposure to others led to their deaths due to disease.

The situation in climate change is somewhat similar. It is assumed that any climate change is bad, as if climate never changed before, or as if there is some preferred climate state that keeps all forms of life in perpetual peace and harmony.

But, if anything, some small amount of warming is probably beneficial to most forms of life on Earth, including humans. The belief that all human influence on the environment is bad is not scientific, but religious, and is held by most researchers in the Earth sciences.

In my experience, it is unavoidable that scientists’ culture, wordview, and even religion, impact the way they interpret data. But let that bias be balanced by other points of view. Since CO2 is necessary for life on Earth, an unbiased scientist would be taking that into account before pontificating on the supposed dangers of CO2 emissions. That level of balance is seldom seen in today’s research community. If you don’t toe the line, getting research results that support desired government policy outcomes, you won’t get funded.

Over-regulation kills people

You might ask, what’s wrong with making our environment ever-cleaner? Making our food ever-safer? Making our radiation exposure ever-lower?

The answer is that it is expensive. And as any economist will tell you (except maybe Paul Krugman), the money we spend on such efforts is not available to address more pressing problems.

Since poverty is arguably the most lethal of killers, I believe we have a moral obligation to critically examine any regulations which have the potential of making poverty worse.

And that’s what is wrong with the Precautionary Principle, a popular concept in environmental circles, which states that we should avoid technologies which carry potential risk for harm.

The trouble is that you also add risk when you prevent society from technological benefits, based upon your risk-adverse worldview of its potential side effects. Costs always have to be weighed against benefits. Thats the way everyone lives their lives, every day.

Are you going to stop feeding your children because they might choke on food and die? Are you going to stop driving your car because there are 40,000 automobile deaths per year?

Oh, you dont drive? Well, are you going to stop crossing the street? That’s also a dangerous activity.

Every decision humans make involve cost-vs-benefit tradeoffs. We do it consciously and subconsciously.

Conclusions & Recommendations


In my opinion, we are an over-regulated society. Over-regulation not only destroys prosperity and jobs, it ends up killing people. And political pressures in government to perform scientific research that favors biased policy outcomes is part of the problem.

Science is being misused, prostituted if you wish.

Yes, we need regulations to help keep our air, water, and food reasonably clean. But government agencies must be required to take into account the costs and risks their regulations impose upon society.

Just as too much pollution can kill people, so too can too much regulation of pollution.

I don’t believe that cutting off funding for research into human causes of climate change is the answer. Instead, require that a portion of existing climate funding be put into investigating natural causes of climate change, too. Maybe call it a Red Team approach. This then removes the bias in the existing way such research programs are worded and funded.

I’ve found that the public is very supportive of the idea that climate changes naturally, and until we determine how much of the change weve seen is natural, we cannot say how much is human-caused.

While any efforts to reduce the regulatory burden will be met with claims that the new administration is out to kill your children, I would counter these objections with, “No, expensive regulations will kill our children, due to the increased poverty and societal decay they will cause. 22,000 children die each day in the world due to poverty; in contrast, we aren’t even sure if anyone has ever died due to human-caused global warming.”

Using a simple analogy, you can make your house 90% clean and safe relatively easily, but if you have to pay to make it 100% clean and safe (an impossible goal), you will no longer be able to afford food or health care. Is that what we want for our children?

The same is true of our government’s misguided efforts to reduce human pollution to near-zero.

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"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby Ken0069 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:21 am

100% Of US Warming Is Due To NOAA Data Tampering
Posted on December 28, 2016 by tonyheller

Climate Central just ran this piece, which the Washington Post picked up on. They claimed the US was “overwhelmingly hot” in 2016, and temperatures have risen 1,5°F since the 19th century.

Image
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/us-r ... 2016-21003

The first problem with their analysis is that the US had very little hot weather in 2016. The percentage of hot days was below average, and ranked 80th since 1895. Only 4.4% of days were over 95°F, compared with the long term average of 4.9%. Climate Central is conflating mild temperatures with hot ones.

Image

They also claim US temperatures rose 1.5°F since the 19th century, which is what NOAA shows.

Image
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-seri ... eyear=2000

The problem with the NOAA graph is that it is fake data. NOAA creates the warming trend by altering the data. The NOAA raw data shows no warming over the past century

Image

See this entire article complete with more graphs and links HERE!

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"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby Ken0069 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 4:07 am

AGAIN........................Here's another from the M0R0N sanfords often quoted authors that you won't see him post on here!

First Week of 2017: Record Cold, 48 States Going Below Freezing
December 28th, 2016 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/12/fir ... -freezing/

It is increasingly looking like the first full week of 2017 will be greeted with a cold air outbreak over the Lower 48 states that will be widespread and persistent.

Early next week the cold air will enter the U.S. through Montana and the Dakotas, where temperatures will likely plunge into the minus 30 deg F (or colder) range.

By the end of the week, single digits could extend into the southeast U.S., and a hard freeze could push into central Florida (graphic courtesy of Weatherbell.com):

GFS model forecast surface temperatures for Friday morning, Jan. 6, 2017.

As can be seen, substantial portions of all 48 states might well be below 32 deg. F.

At the longer range, there appears to be a reinforcing plunge of even more frigid air heading south out of northwest Canada in the second week of January.

The List Rev A
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby Ken0069 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:35 am

Here's yet another Dr Roy Spencer artticle that the M0R0N didn't put up!

Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998
January 3rd, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Strong December Cooling Leads to 2016 Being Statistically Indistinguishable from 1998

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December 2016 was +0.24 deg. C, down substantially from the November value of +0.45 deg. C.

Image

Read this complete article HERE!

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"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby Ken0069 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:38 am

Here's some interesting data on what's going on with the weather/climate today! Oh, and I've got about 7 inches of "global warming" on the ground now and it's not suppose to stop until after 2pm this afternoon!! Can you say "La Nina" boys and girls? I knew you could!!

The Big Chill: All US states except Florida have subfreezing temperatures
Anthony Watts / 22 hours ago January 6, 2017

From THIS article.

We’ve known that the USA is in for a bi-coastal blast of cold air, snow, and heavy rains, but this map by Jesse Farrell shows just have much of the contiguous USA have below freezing temperatures this morning.

Here is a summary of temperatures seen this morning by states:

All States except Florida (80% of US Land) are less than 32°F
25 States (30% Land) Below 0 °F
6 States Below -20°F

Image

Of course, though not seen in the map above, Alaska has subfreezing temperatures, and Hawaii has subfreezing temperatures on the mountain peaks of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea -not unusual for this time of year, but it is important not to exclude the 49th, and 50th states from any discussion about the USA.

Meanwhile, a once in a decade storm will hit California this weekend.

Image Image

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"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby 1989TransAm » Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:07 pm

25 inches of snow in Istanbul Turkey today that paralyzed the city. Darn that global warming.
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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby Ken0069 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:14 pm

UPDATE: Snow stopped around 2pm and we wound up with 9" total. Usually we don't see snow this deep until February or March? An omen of things to come I guess.
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby Kevin Johnson » Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:36 pm

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0426(1997)014%3C1237:HMSSTF%3E2.0.CO%3B2

OCTOBER 1997 N O T E S A N D C O R R E S P O N D E N C E J O U R N A L O F A T M O S P H E R I C
A N D O C E A N I C T E C H N O L O G Y VOLUME 14 1237

Hull-Mounted Sea Surface Temperatures from Ships of Opportunity
W. J. EMERY, K. CHERKAUER,* AND B. SHANNON
Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
R. W. REYNOLDS
Coupled Model Project, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Washington, D.C.
13 March 1996 and 2 August 1996

Page 1242 wrote:The second installation was on the NOAA R/V Malcolm
Baldridge. This ship was selected specifically because
of the thermosalinograph (TSG), which takes water
samples from the bow bubble, several meters below
the ocean surface, and records temperature and salinity.


Page 1246 wrote:The intake temperature series observations
are indicated by boxes that show a very early
distinct bias from the hull sensors of about -2 to -4 degrees C.
As shown by later comparisons in this series, the bias
in the early part of the record was not constant and later
dropped to about zero with the intake temperatures corresponding
closely to the hull temperatures at least for
the northbound leg of the trip. Thus, the problem with
the intake temperatures was lack of consistency over
time.

.
~~~~
Comment:

Fascinating. I thought intake temperatures were supposed to be consistently registering too high.
In this tabulation of actual data with the empirical manifestation of the empirically verified laws of thermodynamics this is not the case.

Perhaps the historical record shows a consistently lower intake temperature and that data should be -- cough -- 'adjusted' upwards?
I am sure the literature is replete with similar observations and recommendations based on the empirical evidence as it stands and not where we wish it to be.

I hope we are scientists and not cooks.
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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby pdq67 » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:28 am

[quote="Ken0069"]You probably won't see the f...ing M0R0N sanford post this one even though it's from one of his often quoted writers. This one doesn't fit his "warmer" agenda and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't post it, so I'll put it her to make sure all of you can read it!

Science Under President Trump: End the Bias in Government-Funded Research
December 21st, 2016 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Image

From THIS article by Dr Roy Spencer that includes numerous embedded links as references.


Since poverty is arguably the most lethal of killers, I believe we have a moral obligation to critically examine any regulations which have the potential of making poverty worse.

I have brought this up a couple of times that EPA DOES NOT put Public or Private, "Fiscal NOTE", information out for comment when they submit a new or amended a rule that takes into account how much it costs us TAXPAYERS due to people losing jobs and that can ultimately die from not having a job, (Ie. -- Job related STRESS!

Now why is this??

It's because if they did, people would soon wake up to the fact that the Agency, much less our regulating Gov. is full of sh*t!!

They all have to PROTECT they JOBS!!

If they quit regulating, there won't be a need for them so why pay them!!

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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby Ken0069 » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:52 am

Hey, I thought "climate change" was responsible for the drought in Mexiformia? If so, then why this happening given that 2016 TIED 1998 as the "warmest" year on record?? :roll:

Satellite Reveals End of “Unending” N. California Drought
January 14th, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/01/sat ... a-drought/

With more rain and snow on the way, the supposed “unending drought” that the New York Times reported on last year has, in a matter of weeks, ended — at least in Northern California.

Yesterday’s color satellite imagery from NASA shows the dramatic changes which have occurred since the same date three years ago:

– Widespread and deep snowpack
– Greening vegetation
– Rivers overflowing their banks
– Strong river discharge into the Pacific Ocean

Image
NASA Aqua MODIS color satellite imagery of N. California separated by exactly three years, showing
dramatic snowpack increase, vegetation greening, and river discharge into the Pacific Ocean.

Here’s a zoomed version of the NASA Terra MODIS image yesterday covering the San Francisco Bay area northeastward toward Sacramento:
Image

The latest GFS model forecast for the next 10 days predicts another 2 to 10 inches of rain, depending on location, with several more feet of snow at higher elevations.

The List Rev A
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby pdq67 » Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:06 pm

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Now if the voters that live in Cali can only get their Gov. to STOP dumping water!!

They would be fine, imho..


If Cali's going to dump water, then either dump it in the Salton Sea or out in the desert!

Oh, and btw, is that little-bitty fish good to eat like the Great Lakes, "Smelt", is?? Because if it isn't, then what the hell are they thinking about?

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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby sanfordandson » Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:04 pm

Leave it to Ken to ask why it's snowing in the mountains...in winter....LOL :lol: #-o
Trump would be a joke IMHO and the joke would be on us.........again!
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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby Ken0069 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:42 pm

References to climate change disappear from White House website
January 20 by Steven Mufson and Brady Dennis

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/20 ... 437bb5b934

The energy page on the new White House website, which went up within moments of Friday’s inauguration, reiterates the priorities Trump had voiced during the campaign, from focusing on “energy independence” to promising to scale back the reach of the Environmental Protection Agency.

It also appeared to remove any reference to combating climate change, a topic that had been featured prominently on the White House site under President Barack Obama. The page that once detailed the potential consequences of climate change and the Obama administration’s efforts to address it vanished on Friday just as President Trump was sworn in. It now redirected to a broken link: “The requested page ‘/energy/climate-change’ could not be found.”

In its place, listed among the top issues of the Trump administration, was a page entitled, “An America First Energy Plan.”

The incoming administration vows to eliminate “harmful and unnecessary policies” such as the Climate Action Plan and the Waters of the United States rule. The first represents a variety of efforts President Obama pursued to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, while the second is a rule issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to protect not only the largest waterways but smaller tributaries that others believe should fall under the jurisdiction of states rather than the federal government.

The new White House site says that Trump would “refocus the EPA on its essential mission of protecting our air and water.”

It also says the incoming president will pursue “clean coal technology,” a reference to efforts to remove carbon dioxide emissions from coal-burning plants and bury those emissions in the ground to use them for enhance oil recovery. The Obama Energy Department has already been funding a variety of projects in this area, though without nearby enhanced oil recovery projects, the technology is not economic. Trump’s White House site says the new administration would aim at “reviving America’s coal industry.”

The List Rev A
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
William Pitt, British Prime-Minister (1759-1806)


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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby pdq67 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:29 pm

Hell, if Trump will do no more than turn back the clock to 2007, we will out run the rest of the countries of the world!

Get rid of ACA, then bring King Coal back and go!!

Oh, and don't forget about locking our borders down and then removing the illegals! They can take their kids back to where they came from, case closed!

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Re: Anti Warming News

Postby exhaustgases » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:22 pm

Just like I have said, its all about manipulation. Of both the actual weather and the data, and all if favor of the climate change religion. The top climate scientists are all liberals. If you own the science then its always going to support all your lies.
The reported temperatures in my area are always too warm sometimes by 5 degrees F, so of course their data will show warmer. They really need to move their data collection thermometers away from the furnace exhaust on the buildings.
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